煮法论践

Prediction markets will let you bet on just about anything, from how many tweets Elon Musk will post this week to the next president of the United States, with predictions sometimes showing shockingly (or suspiciously) spot-on accuracy. Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Copland has even claimed that prediction markets are “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.”

However, these platforms blur the lines — in terms of both function and regulation — between gambling and stock trading. As Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal said on The Vergecast, “All of the lines between trading, speculating, [and] gambling are just being completely torn apart.”

There are also ethical concerns surfacing around prediction markets, like whether it’s acceptable to be able to place a bet on virtually everything, along with concerns about insider trading. For instance, a newly-created Polymarket account made over $400,000 in January betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

• Portugal orders Polymarket to shut down.
• Blood for stonks
• Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture
• Kalshi and Polymarket keep partnering with fake newsbreaker accounts on X.
• Everything is gambling now
• Election night at Kalshi HQ
• Here’s the $2,000 fully AI-generated ad that aired during the NBA Finals
• Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev is betting not
• Polymarket quietly raised more money before the FBI raided the CEO’s apartment.
• The FBI reportedly seized the phone of Polymarket’s CEO.
• Why Robinhood’s CEO thinks prediction markets are here to stay
• Presidential betting platform Kalshi loads up on debt.
• Robinhood admits it’s just a gambling app